• | Standard & Poor's' downgrading of U.S. government sovereign debt was more a catalyst, unleashing negative sentiment, which has built up over recent months, rather than the fundamental cause of recent market volatility. The immediate impact of the downgrade has been to encourage a "flight to quality and safety," paradoxically encouraging investors to buy/hold rather than sell U.S. Treasury bonds. |
• | Our expectations for global economic growth have been downwardly revised but we do not expect a recession. Central banks across the developed world remain committed to forestall any deeper economic decline than we are currently witnessing by shoring up global liquidity. |
• | Equity investors in real estate will react differently depending on their risk profile. Investors with higher risk tolerance will look for opportunities in volatile markets. More risk-averse investors may delay their investment decisions. |
• | Across European markets, the uncertain and uneven outlook appears likely to give some reinforcement to investment trends already apparent during the first half of 2011. These have reflected the marked influence on investor demand and activity of geography, asset quality and local market liquidity. |
• | In the U.S., through the second quarter of this year, we had seen greater transaction volume based on Real Capital Analytics data with a continued compression in cap rates. Heightened uncertainty may slow sales activity in the near term. |
• | In Asia Pacific, investment demand has largely been driven by local or regional capital rather than inflows of investment from elsewhere. Prices have reached aggressive levels in some markets—in certain cases exceeding their 2007/8 highs. While demand remains robust admidst stronger economic fundamentals, there is clear vulnerability to any major shift in investor sentiment due to lower global growth prospects. |
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